Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The Summer of Our Uncertainty...

Gas prices in my 'hood are now at $2.75 $2.89 a gallon, up nearly a dollar since a few weeks ago (and up 14 cents since yesterday morning.)

The ADP National Employment Report provides no solace. More than 532,000 people lost their jobs in May - more than some analysts expected; less than what others had anticipated.

Still, more than a half a million more people were shed from productive employment last month.

Small businesses - the ones not big enough to qualify for a bailout - have been hit hard by the economic downturn, according to the ADP report:

"Since reaching peak employment in January 2008, small-size businesses have shed 2,125,000 jobs."

Unemployment is likely to rise to 9.2 percent for May. From this point in early June, summer looks to be long and hot, especially for those with no income coming in. Let's hope the stimulus kicks in with a breeze that cools down the unemployment figures.

Here's the ADP summary of their report:

"Wednesday, June 3, 2009, 8:15 A.M. ET

Nonfarm private employment decreased 532,000 from April to May 2009 on a seasonally
adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from March to April was revised by 54,000, from a decline of 491,000 to a decline of 545,000.

Monthly employment losses in April and May averaged 539,000. This is a notable improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000. Nevertheless, despite some recent indications that economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, although perhaps not as rapidly as during the last six months.

May’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 265,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 267,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 149,000, its thirty-ninth consecutive monthly decline.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 100,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 223,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 209,000. Since reaching peak employment in January 2008, small-size businesses have shed 2,125,000 jobs.

In May, construction employment dropped 108,000. This was its twenty-eighth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,345,000. Employment in the financial services sector dropped 32,000, the eighteenth consecutive monthly decline.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx."



No comments: